تقدير دالة الإنتاج في الاقتصاد الأردني: حالة القطاع الخاص

Mohammad S. Rfoa, Amer A. Bakeer

Abstract


هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى تقدير دالة الانتاج للقطاعات الاقتصادية في القطاع الخاص الأردني، من خلال الاعتماد على دالة Cobb-Douglas، ودالة مرونة الإحلال الثابتة CES، والدالة المُتسامية Translog. وباستخدام أسلوب الانحدار الذاتي لفترات الإبطاء الموزعة ARDL لبيانات جدولية لستة قطاعات خلال الفترة (2015-2000)، أظهرت نتائج التحليل أن نموذج دالة إنتاج Cobb-Douglas هو النموذج الأنسب لتقدير دالة الإنتاج، وأشارت نتائج هذا النموذج أن القطاعات الاقتصادية تتصف بثبات غلة الحجم. وتتجه لاستخدام عنصر العمل أكثر من رأس المال، حيث بلغت مرونة الإنتاج للعمل 0.58، ومرونة الانتاج لرأس المال 0.49. وتبين أن نموذج تصحيح الخـــــطأ ECM(-1) كان سالباً ومعنوياً وبلغ نحو 0.39، مما يعني أن الإنحرافات في العلاقة قصيرة الأجل يتم تصحيحها بالعودة للمسار التوازني طويل الأجل خلال سنتين ونصف. توصي الدراسة بتعزيز حركة الاستثمار في مشروعات كثيفة الإستخدام للأيدي العاملة، وزيادة الكفاءة والمهارة لدى العاملين، وتطبيق سياسة مالية توسعية تقوم على خفض الضرائب وزيادة الإنفاق الحكومي. وتوسيع قاعدة الصادرات مـن المنتجـات الوطنيـة وتنميتها، وتوجيه الاقتصاد نحو نمو القطاعات المنتجة (الصناعي، والزراعي، والتكنولوجي)، وتوجيه التسهيلات الائتمانية نحو زيادة التكوين الراسمالي الثابت لهذه القطاعات.


Keywords


دالة الإنتاج، الاقتصاد الأردني، التكامل المشترك، الإنحدار الذاتي لفترات الإبطاء الموزعة .(ARDL).

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