Assessing the Effect of Global Climate Change on the Future Jordanian Society (I): A Mathematical Model

Teruaki Ohnishi, Wa’il R. Tyfour

Abstract


A calculation model was developed to forecast and assess the effect of global climate change on the future of energy use, water sufficiency and agricultural production in Jordan. For the purpose of this study, the world is divided into three regions: Jordan, Arab League countries and the rest of the world. Interaction between these regions is assumed to take place in the form of agricultural products exchange. Considering the sectors of energy, water and agriculture in Jordan from the viewpoint of systems' concepts, the future behaviors of their quantities are formulated under conditions of climate change. These quantities are: energy consumption, water supply and demand, and the production and consumption of agricultural products. An example calculation is made and the behavioral features of those quantities from the year 2000 to 2100 are derived under the constraint that the total amount of the worldwide production of a certain agricultural product is equal to the total amount of its consumption. The results show that the amounts of energy, water and agricultural products required for Jordan will become remarkably high, especially in the second half of this century. This strongly emphasizes the need for appropriate policies to tackle the deficits. The developed model appears suitable for assessing the adequacy of the policies that should be implemented in future Jordan regarding the management of the sectors of energy, water and agriculture.


Keywords


Calculation model; future Jordanian society; global climate change; energy; water; agriculture; assessment; forecast; policy making

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