Forecasting The Budget Deficit In Jordan Over The Period (2006-2025): Univariate ARIMA Model

Ahmad I. Malawi

Abstract


This paper examines the behavior of forecasts for the budget deficit in Jordan over the coming twenty years (2006-2025). To achieve the objective, the available historical data for the Jordanian budget deficit over the period (1964-2003) was manipulated by an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Different diagnostic tests also were performed to reach the final results. The empirical results have shown that the Jordanian budget will keep suffering from an increasing deficit over the coming twenty years, which may worsen the crisis of public debt in Jordan.


Keywords


Public Pudget, Jordanian Economy, ARIMA Model

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